RESUMO Este trabalho traz elementos da literatura de complexidade econômica para as discussões da tradição estruturalista em economia sobre o papel central da manufatura e da sofisticação produtiva no crescimento econômico. Usando dados fornecidos pelo Atlas da Complexidade Econômica o presente estudo procurou verificar se a complexidade dos países é importante para explicar convergência e divergência entre países pobres e ricos. A análise econométrica revelou que complexidade das exportações é significativa na explicação de convergência e divergência entre os países. Essencialmente, quanto maior a complexidade da pauta de exportação de países em desenvolvimento, maior é a probabilidade de convergência de renda.

ABSTRACT This paper brings elements from the economic complexity literature to the discussions of the structuralist tradition on the central role of manufacturing and productive sophistication to economic growth. Using data provided by the Atlas of Economic Complexity this study sought to verify if countries’ complexity is important to explain convergence and divergence among poor and rich countries and, if so, which are the countries that will be able to reduce the income gap compared to developed countries. The econometric analysis revealed that exports and production complexity is significant to explain convergence and divergence among countries.

Este trabalho tem como principal objetivo investigar as relações entre nível da taxa de câmbio real, poupança externa e poupança doméstica em países emergentes. Dentro do modelo aqui explorado, casos de sobrevalorização excessiva do câmbio real levam a redução de margens de lucro nos setores de produção de bens comercializáveis, resultando numa queda importante no nível de poupança agregada doméstica. A análise econométrica do trabalho indica que a desvalorização relativa da taxa de câmbio parece ter impactos relevantes nos níveis de poupança doméstica de países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados das estimações, em todas as especificações, apontam para uma robusta e significativa relação positiva entre o índice de desvalorização relativa da taxa de câmbio real calculada e a poupança doméstica/PIB.

This paper provides theoretical and empirical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and domestic savings. We show from a theoretical perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate domestic savings by avoiding consumption booms based on currency overvaluation and by increasing profits in the tradable sector. Our baseline model shows from a short run perspective how a competitive exchange rate may stimulate investment, exports, profits and thus domestic savings. We also present econometric evidence based on a panel with developing countries which shows a robust connection between real exchange rates and domestic savings as a share of GDP.

O trabalho tem por objetivo analisar, sob o ponto de vista teórico, a relação entre nível da taxa de câmbio e desenvolvimento econômico. A hipótese principal segue a literatura de "doença holandesa" e baseia-se na ideia de que câmbios competitivos contribuem para a formação e manutenção do setor manufatureiro da economia. A existência de retornos crescentes nesse setor influencia fortemente o aumento da produtividade no longo prazo. Discute-se, também, como a manutenção de uma taxa de câmbio competitiva poderá estimular a formação de poupança doméstica ao evitar aumentos artificiais do salário real pela via da sobrevalorização cambial.

The objective of this paper is to analyze, from a theoretical point of view, the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. The main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the manufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector and its importance in generating technological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. We also show from a theoretical perspective how a competitive exchange rate can stimulate domestic savings by avoiding consumption booms based on currency overvaluation.

Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.

A partir da década de 70 presencia-se o reaparecimento da microfundamentação na Economia, acompanhada de uma mudança de atitude do mainstream que passa a encarar a formalização e a microfundamentação como critérios de seleção entre conhecimento científico e não científico na Macroeconomia. Tal mudança tem levado a um gradual distanciamento entre a teoria e a prática que tem se mostrado nocivo para a Ciência Econômica. Este artigo procura criticar a microfundamentação da macro partindo de duas bases: primeiro, através da revisão do que convencionamos chamar de críticas internas à microfundamentação, relacionadas às distorções provenientes do reducionismo e da opção pelo agente representativo na elaboração de modelos econômicos; e, segundo, mediante críticas externas, focalizando a impossibilidade de se criar critérios a priori de seleção de teorias, devido à inexistência de fundamentos únicos e perenes para o conhecimento. Por fim, a perspectiva pragmática é apresentada como uma possível alternativa.

Since the seventies, there has been a strong ressurgence of microfoundations in Economics, alongside with a change in mainstream's attitude towards theories that try to rate theories as scientific or non-scientific based on the degree of formalization and, specially, on the presence or lack of microfundations. This change has led to a gradual separation of theory and practice that seems to be harmful to economics. This paper criticizes microfoundations from two different standpoints: first, through reviewing what we call internal criticisms to microfoundations, mainly related to the misleading consequences of reductionism and of the adoption of representative agents in economic modeling; and, second, by developing external critics that highlight the impossibility of finding a priori criteria for judging theories, due to the inexistence of correct and definitive foundations of knowledge. Last, the pragmatic perspective is presented as an alternative.

We discuss in this paper the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile since the seventies, with special attention to overvaluation and undervaluation cycles. Following a recent literature that argues in favor of competitive currencies as part of a development strategy, we argue that the Chilean exchange rate policy in the years that go from 1984 until 1999 were very important to its growth results. Chile even managed to go through the nineties without a major external crisis, especially when compared to its Latin American neighbors. We argue here that the exchange rate crawling band adopted in the middle eighties and nineties was important for its growth strategy.

The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy that one of its authors has been doing in recent years. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country gets indebted not to invest and grow but to consume. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tends to be small and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.

El presente trabajo es una formalización de la crítica a la estrategia de crecimiento con ahorro externo que uno de sus autores ha estado realizando en años recientes. Aunque algunos países de ingreso medio son pobres en capital, el déficit en cuenta corriente (ahorro externo) financiado a través de préstamos o mediante inversiones extranjeras directas no logra incrementar su tasa de acumulación de capital o tiene poco impacto en ella en la medida en que los desequilibrios de cuenta corriente están asociados con tipos de cambio apreciados, aumentos artificiales en sueldos y salarios reales y altos niveles de consumo. En consecuencia, la tasa de sustitución de ahorro interno por ahorro externo es relativamente alta y el país se endeuda no para estimular la inversión y el crecimiento, sino para consumir. Sólo cuando hay grandes oportunidades de inversión, estimuladas por una diferencia significativa entre la tasa de rentabilidad esperada y la tasa de interés de largo plazo, la propensión marginal a consumir disminuye lo suficiente de forma que el ingreso adicional originado por los flujos de capital externo es usado para la inversión más que para el consumo. En este caso especial, la tasa de sustitución de ahorro interno por ahorro externo tiende a ser menor y el ahorro externo contribuye positivamente al crecimiento.

Answers to a marxist critic of the rhetorical and pragmatic perspectives in economics. Based on recent discussions regarding the rhetorical perspective in economics, this paper presents an interpretation of the philosophical approach of Habermas which attempts to rescue the so called 'modern spirit', forgotten in the annals of the 19th century, similar to that presented by Marshall Berman in 1982. Following the reconstructive approach of Habermas's project of modernity, we attempt to show how a 'rhetorical approach' could be applied in the field of economics, and yet still be clearly modern by taking into account intersubjectivities, given the expanded sphere of human communication (as defended in the theory of communicative action of Habermas). In this sense, we will seek to demonstrate the philosophical limits of the anti-rhetorical critiques of, for example, Paulani (1996, 2003, 2005, 2006), which seem to underestimate the linguistic and intersubjective aspect of Habermas's philosophical project that can also be found in McCloskey’s methodological approach.

Vários trabalhos empíricos têm encontrado uma relação negativa entre desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico para uma longa série de países nos últimos trinta anos; quanto mais depreciada a taxa de câmbio, maiores as taxas de crescimento. Nessa literatura, um tema recorrente é a relativa depreciação das moedas asiáticas quando comparadas às moedas latino-americanas e africanas. Nos diversos estudos, surge o resultado de maior depreciação para a Ásia, no que parece constituir um padrão de comportamento dos níveis de taxa de câmbio real para essa região. Com o objetivo de contribuir para a discussão, este trabalho compara a evolução dos níveis de taxas de câmbio reais para países da Ásia e América Latina no período 1970-1999. Discute aspectos do manejo cambial de alguns dos principais países dessas duas regiões e apresenta considerações sobre o papel da política cambial no processo de desenvolvimento destas duas macro-regiões.

Some authors argue in favor of a real exchange rate targeting strategy for developing countries in what could be called a development approach to exchange rates. According to the argument, relatively undervalued exchange rates have been a key factor in most East and Southeast Asian successful growth strategies. Following this so-called development approach, the objective of the paper is to compare the path of exchange rate levels in Asia and Latin America from 1970 to 1999. The work reviews some aspects of exchange rate management for some countries in those regions based on several case studies. It also presents an evolution of real exchange rate levels for a set of 20 countries based on World Bank data and on an index of exchange rate distortion.

Why foreign saving fail to cause growth. The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tend to be small, and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.

Partindo do debate atual sobre retórica em economia, o trabalho tem por objetivo trazer elementos da corrente filosófica do pragmatismo para a discussão metodológica entre economistas, particularmente no que diz respeito à teoria da verdade e suas implicações epistemológicas. Após apresentar as contribuições dos pioneiros da filosofia pragmatista, William James, John Dewey e Charles Sanders Peirce, e discutir aspectos da obra de Willard Quine e Richard Rorty, procura identificar influências dessa corrente filosófica em importantes economistas tais como John M. Keynes, Milton Friedman e Thorstein Veblen. Por fim conclui com algumas reflexões possivelmente úteis para a prática da ciência econômica.

This paper brings elements from the pragmatic philosophy to the debate on methodology in economics, with a specific concern on the theory of truth and its connection with epistemology. After briefly discussing the contributions of William James, John Dewey, Charles Sanders Peirce and the works of Willard Quine and Richard Rorty in this area, we point out to some of the influences that this school of thought may have had on the work of important economists such as John M. Keynes, Milton Friedman and Thorstein Veblen. We then conclude with some reflections that may be useful for research made by economists.

RESUMO Este artigo analisa a retórica de Douglass North. Após uma breve discussão sobre a relevância dos estudos retóricos para fins metodológicos, investigamos o discurso do autor em Instituições, Mudança Institucional e Desempenho Econômico (1990) em duas etapas. A primeira lida com a maneira pela qual North fornece sua teoria - o foco principal aqui é na maneira como ele “fala” com seu público. A segunda mostra o uso do autor de algumas das regras retóricas clássicas propostas por Arida (1983). Na última seção, discutimos alguns aspectos do trabalho de North, considerando outros estudos com a mesma tarefa no Brasil.

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the rhetoric of Douglass North. After a brief discussion about the relevance of rhetorical studies for methodological purposes, we investigate the author’s speech in Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (1990) in two stages. The first deals with the way in which North delivers his theory - the main focus here is in the way he “talks” to his audience. The second shows the author’s use of some of the classical rhetorical rules as proposed by Arida (1983). In the last section we discuss some aspects of North’s work considering other studies with the same task in Brazil.

RESUMO Este artigo tem por objetivo resenhar a teoria institucional de Douglass North. Após uma breve introdução e alguns comentários relacionados ao seu método, resume-se o core teórico que propõe a partir da análise de três de suas principais obras sobre o assunto.

ABSTRACT This paper aims to review the institutional theory of Douglass North. After a brief introduction and some comments related to his method, it sums up the theoretical core that proposes from the analysis of three of his main works on the subject.